Kaniza Garari
IndiGlobal Media Network
What is the Actual Number of Covid 19 deaths? Must this number be accounted for?
Is it important to take a fair assessment of what has actually transpired in the last two years and how many lives have actually been affected due to Covid 19 and post-Covid complications leading to death?
The assessment by the World Health Organization of the numbers is based on a mathematical model which has been strongly objected by the Government of India.
Dr Krishna Reddy Nallamalla, President, InOrder Regional Director, South Asia, ACCESS Health International states that the birth and death registers in every State of India would give an insight into the actual deaths caused during and post-Covid 19 waves.
Causes of Death during the Pandemic:
- Covid 19
- Covid 19 related complications
- Covid 19 related pneumonia
- Covid 19 related black fungus
- Covid 19 related illnesses
- Sudden deaths due to heart attacks during this period
The birth and death registration which is also called the Civil Registration System captures 90 percent of the actual data in India.
Cause of Death is not recorded as it is only done in 30 percent of the cases mostly in urban areas.
Dr Reddy says, “Expected deaths in a year are calculated based on the trends observed in preceding years. Actual deaths are published and these are documents enough to give us the numbers during the time of Covid 19. It is the right of people to know the actual deaths. When this data is not provided there are statistical modeling systems utilized to arrive on access deaths.”
The controversy surrounding India and other countries in the Asian region on the actual deaths is due to the actual numbers not reflecting the excess deaths. Due to this reason, mathematical models are being used to come to conclusions.
Researchers have also relied on Right to Information Act for reliable and verifiable reports on excess deaths.
Actual numbers released from CRS are definitely more reliable than the numbers from various assumptions.
This data must be taken as a yardstick to calculate excess deaths.
Dr Reddy explains, “India is a huge country, and compiling the data and validating the numbers will take time. WHO researchers have clarified that their estimates carry a potential for errors in their assumptions and statistical models.”
But what is the actual number and what is needed for the country to strengthen their reporting mechanism based on actuals? Established epidemiological methods will be able to help arrive at true excess numbers, and verbal autopsy studies and compensation and insurance claims will give a clear picture.
The controversy on excess deaths should be utilized to strengthen the civil registration system, disease surveillance system and building capacity for epidemiological data.
With the digitization of National Health Systems and Ayushman Bharat Digital Mission it is important to set the record straight as Pandemic has provided an opportunity to build and back stronger health systems.
Box:
- Excess deaths across the world according to WHO: 14.9 million from Covid 19 pandemic from January 2020 to December 2021.
- 68 percent of excess deaths are from the top 10 nations: USA, India, Russia, Indonesia, Brazil, Mexico, Peru, Turkey, Egypt and South Africa
- Government of India has strongly objected to the mathematical model of WHO for calculating excess deaths which are estimated to be 47,40, 894 unaccounted deaths.